九月九，釀新酒，好酒出自咱的手啊.......
就在9月9，花旗銀行的分析師采訪了EMC II的CEO David Goulden，談了很多投資者關(guān)心的問題。今天，西瓜哥簡(jiǎn)單來(lái)分享一下EMC對(duì)高端存儲(chǔ)和中國(guó)市場(chǎng)下滑的看法，我相信我的讀者都會(huì)特別關(guān)注這兩個(gè)問題。其他的問題，大家感興趣可以點(diǎn)擊后面的原文鏈接查看英文原稿。
Citi 2015 Global Technology Conference Call
September 09, 2015 01:15 PM ET
Executives
David Goulden - CEO of EMC Information and Infrastructure
Analysts
Jim Suva - Citigroup
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為了保證原汁原味，這里我首先附上英文原文，然后用中文概括一下主要的意思，方便那些英文不好的同學(xué)。
EMC是如何看待高端存儲(chǔ)市場(chǎng)的下滑？
Jim Suva
- Citigroup
Okay. Let’s talk about VMAX a little bit. Kind of where do the trends you’re seeing in VMAX, I believe it’s declining despite you have a new product cycle there, can you get investors up to speed about VMAX?
David Goulden
- CEO of EMC Information and Infrastructure
Sure. So, the VMAX market and the VMAX product is declining, despite a new product cycle. One of the questions that people ask is it being cannibalized by all-flash arrays and of course with our own XtremIO with far market share leader there that’s a small piece, it’s not a major factor in terms of revenue decline in VMAX or in the traditional storage platforms. The bigger factor is that new applications are being hosted on different class of storage, so as people roll out analyticals applications, big data applications, applications to support the Internet of Things, they’re typically going for scale out cloud systems, scale out object systems, Hadoop systems et cetera, and they’re not putting as many new applications on the VMAXs as they did before.
Now, that doesn’t mean to say that VMAX is going away, the VMAX installed base in terms of numbers of systems is actually very stable and the actual amount of capacity in the total VMAX fleet is actually expanding. So there is more capacity, there is more terabytes or petabytes on the floor than they were in prior years before but ray of expansion has slowed down and because of the improvements in price performance in the underlying technology that reduced that creates a decline in revenue base. So it used to be that the capacity was growing such to the point the revenue also grew, the capacity is still growing but the price performance improvements on a year-on-year basis is now driving a decline in marketplace.
That will be a multi-year thing, the good news is those systems aren’t going away, as I said, there is actually a higher amount of capacity in the fleet this year that it was last year, it’s just that most new applications are now going on to different classes of storage platforms, in which we happen to be the market leader as well.
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EMC II CEO的觀點(diǎn)：
1、雖然高端存儲(chǔ)的產(chǎn)品也進(jìn)行了更新，但高端存儲(chǔ)收入確實(shí)在下滑;
2、很多人認(rèn)為高端存儲(chǔ)下滑時(shí)由于全閃存陣列造成的，其實(shí)這個(gè)不是主要因素;
3、更大影響高端存儲(chǔ)下滑的因素是新的應(yīng)用基本都不用高端存儲(chǔ)。用戶把分析、大數(shù)據(jù)、物聯(lián)網(wǎng)這些新應(yīng)用部署到scale out的云系統(tǒng)、對(duì)象系統(tǒng)、Hadoop等等這些存儲(chǔ)系統(tǒng)上，而不像以前把新的應(yīng)用都部署到傳統(tǒng)的存儲(chǔ)上。
4、高端存儲(chǔ)市場(chǎng)并沒有消失，其實(shí)這個(gè)市場(chǎng)是穩(wěn)定的，而且出貨容量繼續(xù)保持增長(zhǎng)。容量增長(zhǎng)而收入下降主要是高端存儲(chǔ)的性價(jià)比越來(lái)越高的原因。
5、這種下滑會(huì)持續(xù)多年，但高端存儲(chǔ)不會(huì)消失，而且EMC在其他新存儲(chǔ)形態(tài)系統(tǒng)也是市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。
EMC如何看待中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的下滑？
Jim Suva
- Citigroup
Okay. A lot of investor concern is on China demand, whether that's geopolitical pushback or just a slowdown in GDP in China which isn't necessarily new, but most recently with their stock market seeing a lot of volatility, there is a lot of concern around China. Can you remind us about how important is China for EMC and maybe has the situation been getting worse, stabilizing, being better? Every time I turn on the news in the morning or read the newspaper at night, it seems like that the end of the world is coming or China is slowing. As you sit there as CEO, what type of trends do you see in China, both on a geopolitical as well as maybe end-market demand?
David Goulden
- CEO of EMC Information and Infrastructure
Right. So China is going to be impacted by both of those. We saw the geopolitical influence on all market in China in Q1. If you remember, we quantified the asset around the kind of $33 million, $35 million impact, vis-à-vis our expectation in the early part of the year. So significant, but on a company of our size, not going to change dramatically our profile. And we’ve seen those trends continue, we mentioned they continued in Q2, we expect them to continue throughout the year. So China as a marketplace is not our biggest market clear by a long factor. And it’s a market where there were not as many geopolitical impacts upon our end of the industry until this year, but this year we will be feeling that headwind and we expect it to continue throughout the year. Obviously what we saw from a geopolitical point of view through Q1, Q2 is factored into what we expect to see for the rest of the year.
Jim Suva
- Citigroup
When you say that 30 to 33, what was that relative to, is that year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter versus original expectations?
David Goulden
- CEO of EMC Information and Infrastructure
It was – if you remember, it was versus our expectations coming into 2015.
Jim Suva
- Citigroup
So expectations, coming into the year.
David Goulden
- CEO of EMC Information and Infrastructure
So when we talked about where we were coming into the year, we talked about how things shaped out in the first quarter from a demand point of view, we kind of basically explained that China Wall is a piece of it and roughly about third of the impact we saw was related to China, so that’s why we got to the $33 million roughly compared to what you saw coming into the year.
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EMC II CEO的觀點(diǎn)：
1、中國(guó)銷售的下滑受到地緣政治和中國(guó)GDP下行的雙重影響;
2、2015全年預(yù)計(jì)受中國(guó)影響的銷售額大概在1/3約33-35m美金;
3、對(duì)于EMC這么大公司來(lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)的下滑對(duì)公司整體影響不大，因?yàn)殚L(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)就不是EMC的大市場(chǎng);
4、地緣政治原因造成Q1和Q2中國(guó)銷售的下滑，預(yù)計(jì)全年都受到影響。
【西瓜哥學(xué)習(xí)心得】
1、高端存儲(chǔ)市場(chǎng)的下滑除了受到閃存的沖擊外，更多是新的第三平臺(tái)應(yīng)用基本都不用高端存儲(chǔ)，而是其他scale out形態(tài)的存儲(chǔ)。
2、傳統(tǒng)的第二平臺(tái)應(yīng)用還是繼續(xù)會(huì)采用高端存儲(chǔ)，只是高端存儲(chǔ)性價(jià)比的改善，雖然容量增加，但收入下降。
3、這種趨勢(shì)是長(zhǎng)期的，傳統(tǒng)的存儲(chǔ)廠商應(yīng)該學(xué)習(xí)EMC，加快轉(zhuǎn)型，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在存儲(chǔ)的整體收入基本是持平的，但傳統(tǒng)存儲(chǔ)部分在下滑，新興存儲(chǔ)部分在快速增長(zhǎng)。不轉(zhuǎn)型，3-5后將會(huì)非常慘。
4、中國(guó)市場(chǎng)對(duì)很多IT跨國(guó)公司來(lái)說(shuō)，有影響但影響不大。因此，中國(guó)和美國(guó)的政治對(duì)抗對(duì)中國(guó)公司來(lái)說(shuō)短期利好，但長(zhǎng)期來(lái)說(shuō)絕對(duì)是弊多利少。馬上習(xí)近平要訪問美國(guó)，希望兩國(guó)政府在這方面的談判有所突破，這也是IT的幸事。
轉(zhuǎn)型的最終目的 -提質(zhì)降本增效
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